| Abstract: | Possible future USSR agricultural productivity, given a global warming scenario, is assessed on the basis of paleoclimatic reconstructions for optima of the Holocene and Mikulino interglacial, which may be analogs of the man-modified warm climate of the future. The calculations were made using a dynamic model of grain yields for 94 territorial units, for the most part coincident with the boundaries of oblasts. Three different indicators, which suggest that the warming trend of climate will be generally favorable for agriculture in the European USSR, are analyzed. The paper also provides insights into current spatial patterns of agricultural productivity. Translated by Larry Richardson, Glendale, CA 91202 from: Izvestiya Akademii Nauk SSSR, seriya geograficheskaya, 1990, No. 6, pp. 29-38. |
