THE MECHANISM OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE VOLGA DELTA AND ITS GROWTH PROSPECTS

The delta of the Volga River on the Caspian Sea is a highly dynamic form, whose growth has been affected by a combination of physical and human factors. Rapid delta growth in recent years has resulted in a deterioration of both physical and economic conditions (navigation problems, inadequate moisture supply, overgrowing of shallows with vegetation, loss of spawning grounds). Regression analysis yields a number of relationships between the inflow of water and suspended sediments, on the one hand, and delta growth, on the other hand, with a distinction between periods of a lowering of the Caspian Sea level and relative stability. The regression equations are used to project the likely future evolution of the delta. The only combination of conditions that is likely to limit further delta growth by the year 2000 is the stability of the Caspian Sea level and a period of average moisture supply. In all other cases, the delta is likely to continue its undesirable advance.