Spatial Interpolation and Disaggregation of Multipliers

Most non-survey methods of estimating single-region multipliers have been shown to produce a systematic upward bias, unless a considerable amount of "superior" data is added. Here it is argued that this conclusion does not need to apply to the case of a non-survey, spatial disaggregation of multipliers. The method proposed consists of four steps with two substantive formulas. The first secures the non-survey interpolation of the lacking intra-regional multipliers for the smaller regions by means of regression. The second secures the non-survey spatial disaggregation of the inter-regional spillovers by means of second-order distance decays. The method is illustrated numerically by means of the interpolation and disaggregation of the 2 × 14 Type II biregional employment multipliers for aggregate Dutch regions into one 40 × 40 inter-regional employment multiplier matrix for the Netherlands as a whole.