危机事件下中国入境旅游的受损格局与影响机制研究

本文基于计量经济学模型及统计分析方法,以1991~2011年中国入境旅游相关数据为基础,探究金融危机等事件下中国入境旅游的受损格局与影响机制.研究发现:(1) 各客源国或地区到中国旅游人数均出现2010年恢复效果明显、2011年恢复效果较弱的特征,但受损幅度差异很大,恢复状况也不尽相同.截至2011年底,各客源国或地区到中国旅游人数均未恢复至预测水平.(2) 各客源国或地区收入水平、自身价格和替代价格的变化量,与各客源国或地区到中国旅游人数的减少量具有长期协整关系.收入水平、自身价格和替代价格的变化最终导致了入境旅游人数的减少.游客在考虑到中国旅行时,个人收入成为大部分客源国或地区游客的主要决定因素,自身价格和替代价格的影响效果也不可忽视.

Study on the Damage Pattern and the Impact Mechanism ofChina's Inbound Tourism in Crisis Events

China is a cosmopolitan country famous for tourism, which receives numerous inbound tourists every year.However, inbound tourist arrivals varied due to the financial and economic crisis that happened in various regions of the world.This study explored into the damage pattern and the impact mechanism of China's inbound tourism in crisis events based on the econometric model and statistical analysis method.The findings are that: (1) Tourist arrivals from all of the source markets display common affected features while the amplitudes of the impacts and the recovery are different.Furthermore, tourist arrivals from any of the source markets can recover to combination predicted values by the end of 2011.(2) There are co-integrated relationships between the changes of tourist arrivals and those of their three determinants for all of the source markets, and the decrease in tourist arrivals is almost attributed to the changes of the income level, the self price and the substitute price.It was also found that the change of income level turns out to be the primary determinant for most source markets, and the changes of the self price and the substitute price shouldn't be ignored.