LIVING WITH THE LONG CYCLE TODAY

There is a need for a new rationale to guide American security policy, including arms control and disarmament. In light of fundamental changes in the external and internal environment, American security policy would appear to have to rest on the following four assumptions: (1) the multiplication of threats, allies, and adversaries; (2) the disparity between greater absolute military power at the disposal of the United States and greater relative impotence in wielding it to influence events abroad; (3) the globalization yet divisibility of American and international security, economic, and political regime interests; and (4) the persistence of divided domestic consensus as the shaky basis from which to project American military power to shape the international environment in ways congenial to often conflicting American preferences.