中国入境旅游业时空变异机制的定量分析

改革开放以来,中国入境旅游业取得了举世注目的成绩,中国目前已经成为世界上最受欢迎的旅游目的地之一,但是中国各个省域入境旅游业的发展却存在着很大的时空差异。本文针对1978年以来中国入境旅游业发展的5个阶段,用各省旅游外汇收入作为被解释变量,用回归分析方法来判定造成时空差异的主要影响因素。本文选取经济发展水平、旅游资源、区位条件、惯性因素和优惠政策五个定量指标,构建了两组定量模型:CSM1和CSM2,分别对中国入境旅游业发展的五个时期进行回归分析。结果表明,中国入境旅游业的时空变异,在上世纪80年代主要是由区位因素驱动的,在1990年代是由政策因素驱动的,而在新世纪开始则是由资金因素驱动的,模型较好地揭示了不同时期中国入境游业的时空变异特征。

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION MECHANISM OF INBOUND TOURISM IN CHINA

Inbound tourism in China has rapidly developed since the launch of the open-door and economic reform policy in 1978. Nowadays China has been one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world. However, there is a great spatial-temporal differentiation in the development of inbound tourism in China. This paper aims at the determining factors of explaining the differentiation mechanisms of Chinese inbound tourism in terms of different development stages by using systems estimator method. Taking the annual foreign exchange incomes of each province as the indicator of inbound tourism, this paper uses regression analysis method to judge the main influential factors which contribute greatly to the spatial-temporal differentiation and chooses five quantitative indexes to elucidate this differentiation. The five quantitative indexes respectively are economic development level, tour resources, location conditions, inertial factor and favorable policies. Two kinds of quantitative models, CSM1 and CSM2, are set up to make a regression analysis of the five stages of inbound tourism in China separately and get nine regression equations. By analyzing the results of model equations thoroughly, some mechanisms to drive the spatial-temporal differentiations of inbound tourism in China are found. Therefore, the analyses show the clear development stage characteristics of spatial-temporal differentiation of inbound tourism in China.