Logistic增长模型在游客流量预测中的应用——以贵州省绥阳县为例

旅游开发要以市场为导向,以资源为基础,以产品为核心,以效益为目标。游客流量的准确预测对旅游资源的开发具有很重要的指导作用。现在游客流量预测已经有了一个比较成熟的方法系统,但这些方法大多针对于开发得比较成熟且具有一定的游客数据积累的景区。本文以贵州绥阳县双河溶洞国家地质公园为例,尝试将种群增长的Logistic曲线与景区的环境容量相结合的方法,来预测其未来一定时段的游客流量,得到了较为满意的结果,对国内其它类似旅游景区开发具有借鉴意义。

THE APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL IN FORECAST OF TOURISTS AMOUNT --A Case Study of Suiyang, Guizhou Province

Whether the tourism economy effectively operates or not is decided by the equilibrium of the supply and demand of tourism. The forecast of tourist amo unt becomes more and more important and play a lead role in the exploitation of tourism market. There is a mature system about the method of tourist amount fore cast, which mainly aims at the scenic spot development and enough data about the tourists. As to the scenic spot that being exploited, the conventional method t hat forecast the tourist amount based on time serial data is infeasible, for the lack of data about tourist amount. The tourism in China develops more and more rapidly, with quick increase of the tourism demand. Facing such a potential mark et, more and more new tourism resources are exploited, then a quantity of scenic spots comes forth. For the sake of the rationality and effectivity of the explo itation, a touring plan which can guide the exploitation and be put into practic e easily is needed. In the touring plan, the forecast of tourist amount is an im portant part. In order to figure out a method which can be applied into the tour ist amount forecast of a new scenic spot without original data, we can get some enlightenment from the trend of tourist amount in scenic spot well developed. We can find out that the trend line can fit the population-growth logistic curve w ell. This paper attempt to forecast the tourist amount in a visible future, by m eans of combining the population-growth logistic curve with the environmental ca rrying capacity. In this method, we get the environmental carrying capacity by u se of the distance method and figure out the parameter on the basis of the touri sm development target and the constructed schedule of the infrastructure. Apply this method to case of the Shuanghe Karst National Geo-Park and get the forecast of tourist amount in the coming 15 years. This method has a referenced signific ance to the exploitation of the other similar domestic scenic spot. But there ar e also some deficiencies in this method, such as some subjectivity exists in the parameters estimation. How to estimate the parameters objectively is the proble m to be figure out in the following study.