INFLATION, PROGRESSIVITY, AND STATE INCOME TAX REVENUES

The combination of progressive income tax structures and inflation has led to significant increases in state income tax revenues. While the federal government has de facto indexed the federal personal income tax, states have generated large relative and absolute increases in their income tax revenues. This paper shows that the ratio of income tax revenues to personal income has grown significantly more in states with progressive income tax structures than those with proportional tax structures. Almost half of such increases may be attributed to inflation. The increase in the relative share of income tax as a source of state revenues has recently run into resistance in some states which have installed income tax indexation measures. This may suggest that the marginal cost of raising revenue through inflation, relative to other means (taxes), is reaching its limits.