发达地区的乡村集镇空间扩展差异与模型研究--以锡山市为例

长江三角洲是我国经济发展最迅速、乡镇企业成长最快的地域。从1970到1998近30年的时间中，尤其是从1978到1998年，锡山市域乡村集镇发生了巨大变化，其发展经历了数量由多到少，规模由小到大的过程。数量的变化本身体现了无锡市区空间和集镇规模的扩大和功能的增强。本首先从1970年的地形图和1984、1991、1998三年的遥感影像上提取锡山市乡村集镇的空间扩展变化信息，在地理信息系统软件中进行叠置分析，然后建立乡村集镇扩展的模型，为乡村集镇空间扩展趋势的预测、规划提供依据。论提供了三种乡村集镇扩展的模型：线型模型、幂函数模型和指数函数模型，而幂函数模型是预测今后集镇发展规模较理想的模型。

A STUDY ON SPATIAL EXPANSION AND MODEL OF TOWNS IN DEVELOPED AREAS--A Case Study of Xishan

Yangtze River Delta underwent the fastest economic development and rural industry growth in China. Towns in Xishan have changed greatly from 1970 to 1998, especially from 1978 to 1998. The change in number reflects the expansion of Wuxi city. In this paper, we extract spatial change information from 1970's topographic map and 1984's, 1991's and 1998's remote sensing images. Then we study changes in number and scale of town in Xishan using GIS. Then we build spatial model of town expansion which will be helpful to predict town development scale and serve town planning in the future. The paper offers three models to predict town development scale, which include linear function, power function and index number function. The model of power function is a good model topredict further town development.