Spatial-Temporal Spread of the AIDS Epidemic, 1982–1990: A Correlogram Analysis of Four Regions of the United States

We applied correlogram analysis to county-level AIDS data of four regions—the Northeast (Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania), California, Florida, and Louisiana—for the period 1982–1990 to characterize the spatial-temporal spread of the AIDS epidemic. Correlograms computed from yearly incidence rates differ substantially among these four regions, revealing regional differences in the spatial patterns and intensity of AIDS spread. A general trend of increasing spread to rural America, however, can still be detected. Contagious spread was predominant in the Northeast throughout the nine-year period, whereas California was dominated by hierarchical spread through time. The spatial-temporal changes of AIDS incidence patterns were most drastic in Florida, where the correlograms show hierarchical spread in the early years and then contagious spread in the later years. As a representative region for most other states in the United States, Louisiana has low spatial autocorrelation and no definite spatial pattern of spread. Grouping data into three-year periods for states with low yearly incidence rates such as Louisiana should help identify the dominant trends for these states. The correlogram results could provide useful insights into the specification of spatial models for AIDS forecasting.