山东省跨世纪人口增长模式研究

人口数量的巨大压力是当前区域人地关系失调从而制约可持续发展的重要原因。本文建立了年龄链式人口仿真模型,对山东省人口增长过程中存在的问题进行了分析,并对未来变化进行了仿真模拟。本文指出当前山东省人口仍处于高速增长时期,增长趋势将持续到下世纪20年代。本文提出了山东省跨世纪人口增长模式,即到2020年人口由快速增长模式向零增长模式过渡,总人口规模峰值出现在2020年左右,峰值人口可控制在一亿人以内,2020年后可选择适度负增长模式。

A STUDY ON THE POPULATION GROWTH PATTERNS CARRIED OVER TO THE NEXT CENTURY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

As a part of regional PRED,population problem is one of the important factors leading to the uncoordination of man-land relationship in Shandong Province.Based on the population system dynamics model designed by the author,this article simulates the future trends of population growth and puts forward the strategy of population growth carried over to the next century.
This article points out that the population amount will be increasing till 20's in the next century.However,being due to the family plan policy carried out more than twenty years,the population age structure has been changing greatly,the birth amount per year has been get ting smaller.By simulating,the article analyzes that the peak amount of population can be cont rolled below 100 million and will occur in 2020 year or so.After that time,the population growth could change to negative growth pattern.