The mortgage crisis and evictions in Barcelona: identifying the determinants of the spatial clustering of foreclosures

The article identifies the determinants of the uneven spatial distribution of housing accumulated by banks via foreclosures in the city of Barcelona. Working with a new data source, we geolocalised foreclosed housing and analysed its tendency to spatially cluster. Using the bivariate version of the Local Moran Indicator, we confirmed the spatial correlation between the concentration of foreclosed housing and indicators of the socio-economic vulnerability of the neighbourhoods containing it. We also applied an OLS model to identify and weight the determinants of this clustering at the neighbourhood level. Our findings revealed that the growth of unemployment, the concentration of (non-EU) immigrant population and a greater presence of residents with low levels of studies were the key variables that explain the uneven geography of foreclosures in Barcelona. The results obtained also allowed us to characterize the spatial distribution of the housing accumulated by the banks during the mortgage crisis. As a result of the massive wave of evictions, banks have emerged as large-scale property owners in Spain and key agents for present and future housing policies.