西安城市化演进过程的多层面分析与趋势预测

西安城市化演进过程与生产力布局阶段性,具有一致性的规律。文章从城市化水平的变化时间序列、城市化水平提高与经济发展的关联性两个角度,定量分析了其演化特征,特别是与经济发展的关系及其规律性,指出西安市城市化的效率在各时期不断提升(结构弹性减小),集约化程度提高,城市化、非农化逐步走向合理。城市化水平整体滞后于经济发展水平,城市化与经济发展过程又可划分为五个阶段,城市化变化与人均增长满足指数规律,城镇密度与关系的模型满足直线关系。最后文章从人口迁移、人口密度变化、城市化圈层分布和卫星城镇的发展及分工等方面对人口城市化趋势进行了探讨。

ANALYSIS ON MULTIPLE LAYERS FOR THE EVOLUTION PROCESS OF URBANIZATION AND FORECAST ON ITS TREND IN XI' AN CITY

There is an identical rule between evolution process of urbanization and layout phases of productive forces. This paper has quantitatively analyzed its evolution features, especially the connection between urbanization and economic development as well as its regularity, from two angles of time-order of urbanization change, and connection between urbanization and economic development. The authors have pointed out that urbanization efficiency is rising constantly in different periods(decrease of structure elasticity), intensity level is rising, urbanization and non-agriculture is inclining to rationalization, urbanization lags behind economic development, there are five phases according to the connection between urbanization and economic development, the relationship between change of urbanization and increase of per capita suits to index model, and the relationship between density of towns and increase of suits to linear function. At last, the thesis have researched urbanization trend from these aspects of migration of population, change of population density, layer distribution of urbanization as well as development and division of satellite towns.