城市外来人口的就业稳定性及影响因素——基于我国4个典型区域12个城市调查的分析

就业稳定性是影响城市外来人口工作生活状况和市民化意愿的重要因素之一。本文利用大样本调查数据,分析了城市外来务工人员就业稳定性的基本特征和影响因素。研究发现:外来务工者工作变更频繁、首份工作持续时间短,劳动合同签订率普遍不高且期限短;外来务工人员中非农户籍群体稳定性略强;年龄、婚姻、受教育情况、社会阅历、老家关系、工资差异、劳动合同等因素对务工人员就业稳定性有显著影响;1978-2009年不同时期进城的务工人员工作稳定性具有波动性,但近年来稳定性有提高的趋势;就业稳定性的地域特征有一定差异性。2006年以来,个人阅历、职业培训、社会网络、劳动合同等因素的影响作用有所增强。

THE CHARACTERISTICS AND DETERMINANTS OF MIGRANTS' EMPLOYMENT STABILITY: EVIDENCE FROM A LARGE SAMPLE SURVEY

Rural migrant laborers possess large potentials to be transformed into urban residents in contemporary Chinese cities. Therefore, the employment status of migrant laborers has gradually become one of the most important issues in the field of urbanization research. In response to this phenomenon, this paper, from the perspective of registration segmentation, employs a large sample survey data to explore the characteristics and influencing factors of the employment stability of migrant laborers. This survey data includes 2398 households from six provinces and covers Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Bohai Rim, and Chengdu-Chongqing Area. In this sense, it can fully capture the general characteristics of migrant laborers across China. Some measures as job changing frequency and the first job duration are used in this paper to reflect employment stability. Ordered Probit Regression run by STATA is also applied to test the factors that influence the employment stability of migrant laborers. The results show that migrant laborers change their jobs frequently and their first jobs are usually short in duration. Their average job changing frequency is 0.44. In other words, on average, merely 27.3 months are spent on one job, though this number is slightly higher than that of their first job (26.3 months). A rather limited number of migrant laborers sign contracts with their employers. Significant spatial-temporal differences could also be observed. The employment stability in Bohai Rim is the lowest among surveyed regions, whereas that in Yangtze River Delta is the highest. Concerning the influencing factors, individual attributes exhibit strong capacities in determining their stability in employment.