1978年来长江三角洲经济格局空间演变研究

本文通过ESDA相关分析,以4个时间断面的县域单元为研究对象,描述了1978年以来长江三角洲县域经济格局在空间上的变化状况。总体自相关趋势在不断增加,高低集聚的格局不断加强,热点区域分布的空间结构经历了从"一"字形到"二"字形,再到"Z"字形的演化过程。经济增长空间格局发展的态势在空间分布上表现出更多的随机性和结构的不稳定性,热点区域切换频繁,没有明显的地理集中现象。最后将长江三角洲经济格局演化因素归结为4个方面:历史发展基础、经济区位、交通条件和区域发展政策,历史发展基础、经济区位是区域经济格局演化的内在因素,而交通条件、区域发展政策则是区域经济格局演化的外在推手。

RESEARCH ON EVOLVEMENT OF SPATIAL PATTERN OF ECONOMY IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA SINCE 1978

The imbalance of economic activity and economic phenomenon is a normal status of regional economic.Analysis of regional economic differences and their reasons is very important to accelerate the development of the underdeveloped regions and keep the competitiveness of the developed areas.Based on the correlation analysis of ESDA in the county scale in four years,this paper has made some research on spatial evolution of county economy in the region of Yangtze River Delta since 1978.This paper found out some spatial evolution rules in the region of Yangtze River Delta as follows.Firstly,the general autocorrelation and the pattern of high-low agglomeration are inclined to get increased constantly in the General economic spatial pattern level.In 1978,the spatial distribution of hot spots looks like scattered distribution.In 1988,the distribution of hot spot regions appeared to "一" type,while economy of areas along the Shanghai-Nanjing had a rapid development.In 1998,the distribution of hot spot regions evolving from "一" type to "二" type,while economy of areas along the Shanghai-Nanjing had continue to rapid development,and economy of areas along the Hangzhou-Ningbo also had a rapid development.In 2008,the distribution of hot spot regions evolving from "二" type to "Z" type,while the economy of areas along Shanghai-Nanjing and Hangzhou-Ningbo had Further development,and economic advantages of areas along the Shanghai-Hangzhou also had appeared.Secondly,more randomness and instability of developing state of spatial framework of economic growth has manifested themselves in spatial distribution and hot spot changes frequently,while Moran’s I appeared three status in different phases.Thirdly,four elements of economic framework evolvement in Yangtze River Delta have been drawn: historical development basis,economic location,transportation conditions and regional development policies.