Trends and triggers: Climate,climate change and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, USA;2. Centre for the Study of Civil War, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, Norway;3. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA;1. Department of Geography and the Advanced School for Environmental Studies, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel;2. Department of Geography and Program in Planning, University of Toronto, Canada;1. Department of International Relations, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QN, UK;2. Department of International Relations, Bilkent University, 06800 Ankara, Turkey;1. Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Box 514, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden;2. Center for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS), Villavägen 16, SE-752 36 Uppsala, Sweden;1. University of Sussex, United Kingdom;2. Kyunghee University, South Korea;1. Department of Geography, University of Utah, United States;2. Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, United States;3. Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Anthropology, University of Colorado Boulder, United States;4. Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Political Science, University of Colorado Boulder, United States;5. Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Alaska Anchorage, United States |
| |
| Abstract: | The conventional discourse relating climate change to conflict focuses on long term trends in temperature and precipitation that define ecosystems and their subsequent impact on access to renewable resources. Because these changes occur over long time periods they may not capture the proximate factors that trigger conflict. We estimate the impact of both long term trends in climate and short term climatic triggers on civil conflict onset in Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that both operationalizations have a significant impact. Climates more suitable for Eurasian agriculture are associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict, while freshwater resources per capita are positively associated with the likelihood of conflict. Moreover, positive changes in rainfall are associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict in the following year. We also assess the outlook for the future by analyzing simulated changes in precipitation means and variability over the period 2000–2099. We find few statistically significant, positive trends in our measure of interannual variability, suggesting that it is unlikely to be affected dramatically by expected changes in climate. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
