Everybody Loves a Winner: On the Mutual Causality of Presidential Approval and Success in Congress

A large literature argues that approval affects presidential legislative success, but Washington observers often believe that legislative success leads to higher presidential approval ratings, that is, success and approval may be endogenous. This article tests for the endogeneity of approval and success. After building a theory that links success to higher approval, annual aggregate data from 1953–2011 are used to test for the endogeneity between approval and success. All statistical tests indicate that approval and success affect each other. This article concludes by putting the findings into perspective and suggesting new research directions.