Estimates of Upper Palaeolithic meta-population size in Europe from archaeological data |
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| Institution: | 1. UPR 2147 CNRS, 44 Rue de L''Amiral Mouchez, 75014 Paris, France;2. UMR 5808 CNRS, Bordeaux, France;3. Isup, Paris, France;4. European University, St. Petersburg, Russia;1. ArScAn, UMR 7041, CNRS Maison de l''Archéologie et de l''Ethnologie, 21 allée de l''Université, 92 023 Nanterre Cedex, France;2. TRACES, UMR 5608, CNRS, Maison de la Recherche, Université Toulouse Jean-Jaurès, 5 allées A. Machado, 31058 Toulouse cedex 9, France;3. PACEA, UMR5199, CNRS, Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy St-Hilaire, CS 50 023, 33615 Pessac Cedex, France;1. Department of Geoecology and Palaeogeography, Maria Curie–Skłodowska University, Lublin, Kraśnicka 2cd, 20-718 Lublin, Poland;2. Institute of Geological Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Twarda 51/55, 00-818 Warszawa, Poland;3. Institute of Geological Sciences, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Gonchara 55B, 01601 Kyiv, Ukraine;4. National Museum of Natural History, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 15 Bohdan Khmelnitsky, Kyiv 01601, Ukraine;5. Department of Geomorphology and Palaeogeography, Ivan Franko National University, Doroshenka 41, 79000 Lviv, Ukraine;6. Institute of Archaeology, Jagiellonian University, Gołębia 11, 31-007 Kraków, Poland;7. Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Sławkowska 17, 31-016 Kraków, Poland;1. Instituto Internacional de Investigaciones Prehistóricas de Cantabria (IIIPC), Avenida de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander, Spain;2. CREAP Cartailhac-TRACES-UMR 5608, University de Toulouse-Le Mirail, 5 allées Antonio Machado, 31058 Toulouse Cedex 9, France;3. Laboratorio de Evolución Humana, Dpto. CC. Históricas y Geografía, University de Burgos, Plaza de Misael Bañuelos s/n, Edificio I+D+i, 09001 Burgos, Spain |
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| Abstract: | Three databases (2961 georeferenced archeological sites, simulated climatic variables simulating a typical “warm” phase of the isotopic stage 3 (IOS3 project), and ethnographic of hunter–gatherers (HG)) were used to estimate the size, growth rate and kinetics of the metapopulation of HG during four periods of the Upper Paleolithic in Europe. The size of the metapopulation was obtained by multiplying a demographic density (per 100 km2) by the size of the population territory of HG. Demographic density for each period was calculated by successively backprojecting a reference density obtained for the Late Glacial with inter-period growth rate of the archeological sites. From the Aurignacian to the Glacial Maximum, the metapopulation remained in a positive quasi-stationary state, with about 4400–5900 inhabitants (95% confidence interval (CI95%): 1700–37,700 inhabitants). During the Glacial Maximum, the metapopulation responded to the cold: (i) by moving the northern limits of its maximum expansion zone towards the low latitudes by 150–500 km from west to east, (ii) by concentrating in few refuge zones (mainly Périgord, Cantabria and the Ibérian coasts), (iii) by becoming perhaps distributed in smaller groups than during the pre and post Glacial Maximum. The metapopulation reached 28,800 inhabitants (CI95%: 11,300–72,600) during the mid-Late Glacial recolonisation. |
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