THE FULL-DISTRIBUTION APPROACH TO AGGREGATE REPRESENTATION IN THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODELING FRAMEWORK*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a probabilistic specification of coefficients in the input- output modeling framework. Although previous works on probabilistic input-output models attribute uncertainty to measurement and sampling errors, this specification derives from systematic variation directly attributable to industrial, institutional, and location factors. Experiments with national input-output data support the existence of such variation. Employing the specification not only yields a more flexible aggregate modeling framework capable of producing interval impact estimates, but also an alternative perspective on such issues as interregional differentiation and structural comparison, the identification of key industrial sectors, aggregation, and spatial variation in production.