| Abstract: | This article1 1. The authors wish to acknowledge the support of their respective home institutions—the University of Sydney and San José State University, as well as Stanford University (where Dr Reckmeyer served as a Visiting Professor with the Center for International Security and Cooperation in 2009–10)—for the necessary time and funds to conduct this study. View all notes reviews the seminal influences on Australian national security planning and outlines a methodology for assessing national security risk which provides a workable analytical framework for prioritising Australia's national security challenges and allocating scarce resources in a systematic and integrated way. The authors argue for a System of Systems approach that addresses the most serious security challenges as a whole rather than treating them as independent, compartmentalised issues. The ability to develop effective analytical tools for assessing national security risk will be a key determinant of strategic success in the twenty-first century. Nations adept at anticipating developments, discerning trends and evaluating risk among the clutter of confusing and contradictory change indicators will be significantly advantaged over those which are not. |
