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Bayesian modelling of an absolute chronology for Egypt's 18th Dynasty by astrophysical and radiocarbon methods
Authors:A Quiles  E Aubourg  B Berthier  E Delque-Koli?  G Pierrat-Bonnefois  MW Dee  G Andreu-Lanoë  C Bronk Ramsey  C Moreau
Institution:1. Laboratoire de Mesure du Carbone 14 (CEA/CNRS/IRD/IRSN/MCC), CEA-Saclay, Bât 450, Porte 4E, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France;2. Université Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 5 rue Thomas Mann, 75013 Paris, France;3. APC, Université Paris Diderot, CNRS/IN2P3, CEA/Irfu, Obs de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cité, France;4. Institut de Physique Nucléaire d''Orsay (IN2P3-Université Paris Sud), 15 rue Georges Clémenceau, Bâtiment 100, 91406 Orsay Cedex, Paris, France;5. Département des Antiquités égyptiennes du Louvre, Musée du Louvre, 75058 Paris Cedex 01, France;6. Research Laboratory for Archaeology and the History of Art, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
Abstract:Only a few astrophysical points and synchronisms listed in texts provide anchor points for the absolute chronology of Ancient Egypt. At first we will show how we can re-calculate some of these anchor points by using Sothic dating based on the arcus visionis method, and modelling lunar dates using a Bayesian approach. Then, we will discuss two radiocarbon studies carried out on short-lived Egyptian materials held at the Louvre Museum that could be attributed to particular reigns or other precise periods. Using a Bayesian approach, these dates were combined with the known order of succession and the lengths of reigns. Sothic and lunar dates were integrated as priors in the model. This approach has led to a new proposal for the absolute chronology of Egypt's 18th Dynasty.
Keywords:Egypt's 18th Dynasty  Absolute chronology  Bayesian modelling  Sothic dating  Lunar dating  Radiocarbon dating  Accelerator Mass Spectrometry
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