A Bayesian C chronology of Early and Middle Bronze Age in Sicily. Towards an independent absolute dating

This paper proposes a Bayesian model for the ¹⁴C chronology of Sicilian Early and Middle Bronze Age, with a specific focus on the northeastern sector of the island. Building on the available ¹⁴C determinations, the model allows addressing a number of chronological questions left open in literature, making a first step towards an independent absolute chronology. The analysis put the start of the earlier part of Early Bronze Age (Capo Graziano 1-Casa Lopez phase) between 2400 and 2175 cal BC, and the end at about 1960 cal BC. The advanced stage of the same period (Capo Graziano 1-Filo Braccio phase) is likely to have started and ended around 1960 and 1730 cal BC respectively. The model indicates that the time slot with the highest posterior probability for the start of the Middle Bronze Age–Milazzese (Portella phase) is between 1490 and 1460 cal BC. This turns up to be earlier than held to date. Notably, the model enables for the first time to bracket the development of the later stage of Early Bronze (Capo Graziano 2-M. di Capo Graziano phase) between 1730 (end of Filo Braccio phase) and 1490/60 cal BC (start of Middle Bronze Age–Portella phase). The latter date is earlier than usually held for the end of Capo Graziano 2. The existence of a narrow gap between the end of the latter and the start of Middle Bronze Age-Portella phase is tentatively proposed only on stratigraphic grounds. Further, the analysis enables for the first time to pinpoint and quantify the lag that is likely to have existed between the start of those Sicilian prehistoric phases and the appearance of Late Helladic imports. The comparison with the Aegean ¹⁴C Bayesian chronology indicates that a time lag (about 45 yr) is likely to have occurred between the start of Capo Graziano 2 and of the Late Helladic period. A time lag between 20 and 70 yr is likely to have existed between the start of the Sicilian Middle Bronze Age and of the Late Helladic III. Arguments tentatively supporting the narrower interval are also discussed.