基于干旱脆弱性的农户系统体制转换及其影响机制——以榆中县中连川乡为例

通过问卷调查和半结构式访谈获取数据,基于社会-生态系统多体制视角,对农户系统体制及状态进行辨识,并构建农户对干旱的脆弱性指数对其进行评价;采用多元logistic模型识别农户系统体制转换影响因素,并从客观动因、主观动因和决定动因三方面,探讨农户系统体制转换的影响机制。研究表明:①研究区农户系统体制从传统农业体制,向新型农业体制和非农型体制转换。农户由于自身转化力不同,转换结果存在差异。②自然环境和社会经济发展驱动系统体制发生转换,农户期望(教育支出和家庭责任)决定转换方向,农户转变生计方式的能力(行为认知、劳动力比重和社会网络)决定转换程度,在其作用下,农户体制和状态出现差异并最终导致脆弱性分异。

PEASANT HOUSEHOLD SYSTEM REGIME SHIFT AND ITS INFLUENCE MECHANISM BASED ON DROUGHT VULNERABILITY:A CASE STUDY OF ZHONGLIANCHUAN TOWNSHIP IN YUZHONG COUNTY

Based on the perspective of social-ecological systems multiple regime theory, peasant household regime and state is recognized. And the index system of vulnerability to drought of peasant household is established from two aspects of sensitivity and adaptability, as the evaluation criterion of different regimes and states of peasant household. Researches show that: ① Peasant household system regime in the study area has shifted from a traditional agricultural regime into a new agricultural regime and a non-agricultural regime. ② Through regime shift, the vulnerability of peasant household to drought has been significantly reduced, shift to non-agricultural regime is prior to new agricultural regime to reduce the drought vulnerability, and in each regime, drought vulnerability is negatively correlated with the shift degree. ③ The proportion of labor force and relatives network are important family factors that can influence peasant household regime shift, peasant household is promoted to shift to non-agricultural regime by education spending. ④ Peasant household regime shift is driven by natural environment and the development of social and economic (objective reason),the convert direction is determined by the family expect of peasant household (subjective motivation) and the convert degree is determined by the ability of peasant household to change the way of living (determinants).