湖泊流域社会生态系统脆弱性时空演变及调控研究——以滇池为例

脆弱性研究领域不断从自然生态系统向社会自然复合系统扩展,从社会生态系统视角动态化和人文化地研究脆弱性已成为趋势。湖泊流域是多层级的复合的社会生态系统,从流域角度、社会生态系统层面、体制机制维度,综合分析社会生态系统脆弱性的驱动机制,对系统治理和源头治理湖泊流域具有重大意义。文章以滇池为例,将"压力-状态-响应"模型和"暴露度-敏感性-恢复力"模型结合,构建脆弱性分析框架和评价模型,探寻湖泊流域社会生态系统脆弱性时空演变规律和脆弱性驱动机制,提出了湖泊流域脆弱性调控和区域可持续发展的思路。

STUDY OF TIME-SPACE EVOLUTION AND CONTROL OF VULNERABILITY OF LAKE BASIN SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM: A CASE OF THE DIANCHI LAKE

This article, taking the Dianchi lake as an example, combining the "Pressure-State-Response" model and "Exposure-Sensitivity-Resilience" model, from the point of view of social ecological system, build social ecosystem vulnerability analysis framework, exploring the space-time evolution of the vulnerability of the Dianchi lake watershed, revealing the driving mechanism of vulnerability. The author holds that:1) The Dianchi lake basin is the origins and centor of the Kunming city in term of vulnerability development, whose vulnerable area is expanding, vulnerable degree increasing; 2) The watershed keep staying in the high-risk stage of vulnerability, easy to change the steady state of the system; 3) Sensitivity and responsibility to disaster is weakening in the whole system during the peroid from 1990 to 2010a; 4) Special geological and geographical environment, limited environmental capacity make the congenital basement for the vulnunerbilty; 5) Excessive concentration of function role serving the region, leading to intensified human activity, complex pollution sources, destruced the naturial landscape, deteriorated and made damage to the human-enviroment relations; 6) Unreasonable land use made the landscape pattern destroyed, ecological conection between parts of the system interrupted, ecological service function of the system weak or even lost totally; 7) Weak environmental consciousness of the users in the watershed, low management efficiency of the authority add to the vulnurbility of the system; 8) Low-end industrial structure, low-efficiency production hinder the cultivation of the responsibility of the system.