泛长江三角洲FDI空间格局演化研究

运用GIS-ESDA空间分析框架,探讨2000年以来泛长江三角洲FDI空间格局演化,结果表明:FDI分布总体呈弱集聚格局,热点区分布较稳定,呈现以上海、苏州为核心的圈层结构;FDI增长格局逐渐由随机性向规律性特征转变,集聚现象日益显著,其热点区与次热区均呈现从南向北跃迁,由零星分布向团状集聚形态转变的态势;FDI总体差异逐渐减小,而且作用于整个空间尺度因随机因素引起的空间差异不断降低,空间连续性和自组织性较显著。从各方向发展趋势看,东南-西北方向差异最小,东-西方向差异最大,且南-北方向差异逐渐增大,而其他3个分方向差异不断减小。最后,将FDI空间格局演化的驱动力归结为集聚效应、技术势差、地缘关系、成本和市场容量5个方面。

RESEARCH ON SPATIAL PATTERN EVOLUTION OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN PAN-YANGTZE RIVER DELTA

The Pan-Yangtze River Delta has become one of the most important FDI concentration areas in China. Based on analysis with ESDA-GIS framework,the spatial pattern evolution of FDI in Pan-Yangtze River Delta was studied since 2000. The results show that the overall agglomeration degree of FDI in PanYangtze River Delta is quite low and will continue to fall as time goes on. The distribution framework of the hotspot regions remains stable,and the spatial structure of the hotspot regions distribution takes on a layer structure taking Suzhou and Shanghai as the center and decreases progressively from the center to the periphery. As to the growth framework,the distribution pattern of FDI is gradually changing from randomness to regularity. That is, the agglomeration phenomenon will become more and more remarkable. The distribution of the hotspot regions and sub-hot regions shows a trend of moving from south to north and from sporadic distribution to cluster distribution,while the number of original cold spot regions showing a continuous distribution and gradually replaced by the sub-cold regions continues to decline. The overall spatial difference of FDI tends to be slight,in addition,the spatial framework of FDI in Pan-Yangtze River Delta tends to be more continuous and self-organized,and the spatial variability is contributed to the influencing of the correlation rather than of the random gradually. The heterogeneity of FDI in the direction of northwest-southeast is minimum,while the spatial difference in the direction of west-east is the largest. Not only that but spatial difference in the direction of north-south is gradually growing, while the value of fractional dimension in three other directions continues to fall. Finally, the driving force of the spatial pattern about FDI in Pan-Yangtze River Delta can be divided into five aspects: agglomeration effects,technological difference, geo-relation,cost and the market capacity.