中俄双边旅游与进出口贸易互动关系的实证研究

以1998-2011年中俄两国旅游与贸易数据为基础,利用格兰杰因果关系检验发现俄国出境旅游是进出口贸易的单向格兰杰原因,中国进出口贸易是出境旅游的单向格兰杰原因。旅游与贸易互动关系研究结果表明:俄国出境旅游对进出口中国贸易均有着明显的推动作用,并对进口贸易的推动作用要明显强一些;中国进出口贸易对出境俄旅游都有明显的促进作用,进口贸易的促进作用要略强一点。俄罗斯断面看,占中国入境旅游比对对华贸易依存度有一定影响;中国断面看,中国对俄贸易依存度对出境俄旅游偏好和占俄入境旅游比影响均较大。两国旅游与贸易的互动性差异特征分析能为两国双边旅游与贸易良性互动发展提供相应参考。

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON INTERACTION RELATION OF SINO-RUSSIA BILATERAL TOURISM AND IMPORT AND EXPORT TRADE

International tourism and international trade are two mutual connection and mutual influence system. Based on data from 1998 to 2011 between Sino-Russia bilateral tourism and import and export trade, results of Granger causality test indicate that there exists a unidirectional Granger causality relationship from Russia's outbound tourism to import and export trade, and a unidirectional Granger causality relationship from China's import and export trade to outbound tourism. Using five groups of indicators from two sections to quantitatively analyze the interactive relationship of Sino-Russia bilateral tourism and import and export trade and their mutual interaction strength, The results are as follows:1) Russian outbound tourism to China has a significant promoting role to import and export trade, namely Russian outbound tourism to China can promote Russian import from China and export trade to China, and the role to import trade better, the promotion strength of total volume of import and export trade is 1.79. 2) From the side of Russia, occupation ratio of Russian tourists in Chinese inbound tourists has a certain influence on Russian trade dependence on China, every 1 percentage point increase of occupation ratio of Russian tourists in Chinese inbound tourists, Russian trade dependence on China will increase by 0.041 percentage points. 3) From the side of China, Chinese trade dependence on Russia has a great impact on Chinese tourism preference to Russia and occupation ratio of Chinese tourists in Russian inbound tourists.