东北地区资源型城市资源诅咒效应及传导机制研究

通过面板数据固定效应模型,利用东北地区23个资源型地级城市1999-2012年的数据,分析了东北地区资源型城市资源诅咒效应的存在性与主要传导机制。结论显示东北地区资源型城市存在资源诅咒效应;物质资本投资对经济发展起到最为明显的促进作用,制造业投入和教育业投入也具有一定的促进作用,但作用不够显著。城市开放程度与经济发展之间呈现负相关关系,而城市类型与经济发展不存在明显相关关系。传导机制方面,资源诅咒效应主要通过抑制制造业发展、物质资本投入和教育业投入来阻碍经济增长,其中对制造业的负面影响是主要传导因素。煤炭和石油型城市体现出较为明显的人力资本挤出,而其他类城市传导机制作用则比较平均。

RESOURCE CURSE EFFECT AND TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF RESOURCE-BASED CITIES IN NORTHEAST CHINA

Using the fixed-effect regression model and the data of 23 resource-based cites of Northeast China from 1999 to 2012, this paper analyzed the existence of resource curse effect, the transmission mechanism of resource-based cities and the comparison between typical types of resource-based cities and other types of resource-based cities in Northeast China. Studies reveal that the resource exploitation indeed imposes restrictions on the economic development of these resource-based cities and the resource curse effect exists in the time range of 1999-2012; except the resource exploitation degree, the fixed assets investment has the greatest promoting effect on economic development; manufacturing and education input have positive effects to some extent, but not as obvious as fixed assets investment. Foreign capital investment impedes the economic development, which means that these cities do not fully use the foreign capital investment; while city type has no obvious effects on the economic growth of resource-based cities. The driving function of manufacturing and educational input does not show up completely and the utilization rate of these two factors is lower than expected. The analysis of transmission mechanism shows that resource exploitation impedes economic growth mainly by the reduction of manufacturing input, fixed assets investment and education input, among which the negative effects on manufacturing input is the most important transmission mechanism of the resource effect in the resource-based cities in northeast China and this is the so-called Dutch disease effect.The influence of resource exploitation on foreign capital investment is complicated, because on one hand,there are policy restrains of foreign capital investment on many resource industries and on the other hand, it is possible that foreign capital investment may cause capital outflows.