Territorial origins of center-seeking and self-determination claims in Africa

Why doesn't Africa have more self-determination movements? Given the prevalence of weak states, artificial borders, and high ethnic diversity, one might expect that the majority of African rebel groups would pursue self-determination outcomes. Yet, the data indicate that most rebel groups have attempted to capture the state in center-seeking conflicts rather than to break off a piece of it. Why? In this study, we argue that the exogenously determined territorial size of the country in which new groups emerge shapes whether groups pursue center-seeking or self-determination outcomes. We argue that the size of the territory determines the overall cohesion of the state, which then shapes the political imagination of the group, affecting how an emerging rebel group conceives of itself and its constituents relative to the state. We also argue that the size of the territory shapes the perceived feasibility of either center-seeking or self-determination outcomes. Drawing from a recent dataset on rebel group emergence, we find support that rebel groups emerging in large states are more likely to seek self-determination than rebel groups in small states. We test multiple alternative arguments and find that our results are robust to them as well as additional testing specifications.