国家精准扶贫政策对贫困农户脱贫增收的效果评价——基于双重差分模型的检验

基于重庆市武陵山区和秦巴山区贫困农户与非贫困农户的调研数据,运用双重差分模型检验精准扶贫政策对贫困农户收入增长的影响。结果表明,贫困农户在精准扶贫政策的支持下,家庭人均纯收入增长显著,与非贫困农户相比差距进一步缩小;家庭主要收入来源,由单一渠道向多渠道转变,人均种植业收入和人均养殖业收入增长最明显,二者贡献率合计达到61.87%;农户的年龄、家庭人口数量、老人小孩数量、耕地面积、耕作半径、是否发展特色产业等因素对贫困农户家庭人均纯收入影响显著。因此,发展特色产业,解决贫困农户的教育、医疗、住房和土地撂荒问题是保障贫困农户脱贫后稳定增收的关键。

EVALUATION ON EFFECT OF NATIONAL ACCURATE POVERTY ALLEVIATION POLICY ON RURAL POOR HOUSEHOLDS: BASED ON DOUBLE DIFFERENCE MODE

With the thorough implementation of National Accurate Poverty Alleviation Policy across the country, how to measure the change of peasant household income in poor areas and find out the key factors that affect the growth of income, so as to provide better suggestions for "one family one policy". This paper is based on the survey data of poor and non-poor rural poor households in Wuling mountainous area and Qinba mountainous area of Chongqing, and the double difference model is used to test the effect of Accurate Poverty Alleviation Policy on the income growth of the rural poor households. The results show that under the support of Accurate Poverty Alleviation Policy, the per capita net income of rural poor households increased significantly. What's more, their income gap is further narrowing compared with non rural poor households. Their major household income source changed from a single channel to multi-channel, and the average per capita income of the crop farming and livestock breeding grows most rapidly which account for 61.87%. The factors such as the age, family population, the number of the elderly and children, agricultural acreage, radius of farming, whether to develop characteristic industries etc, have significant influence on the per capita net income of rural poor households. The key to guarantee the rural poor households to get rid of poverty and increase income continually is to develop characteristic industries and solve the problem for rural poor households in the aspect of education, medical care, housing and land abandonment. Key words: accurate poverty alleviation