中国生产性服务业发展水平的时空特征及其影响因素

基于标准差椭圆、ESDA-GWR和空间计量方法,对2003-2015年中国286个地级单元生产性服务业发展水平的时空特征及影响因素进行分析。结果显示：2003年以来,我国生产性服务业发展水平综合指数有较大提升,从沿海向内陆阶梯状递减的趋势逐渐增强,并形成沿海向内陆的“中心-外围”结构;空间上表现出在东-西方向上先极化后分散,南-北方向上先分散后极化的演变特征;城市间生产性服务业存在较强的正相关性,虽强度有所减弱但仍非常显著。影响因素结果显示：服务生产率、开放程度、城市化率、产权结构、知识资本密度对城市生产性服务业水平提高产生正向影响,而工业化程度对其产生抑制作用,挤出效应明显。

TEMPORAL-SPATIAL CHARACTERISITICS AND INFLUENTIAL FACTORS OF CHINA' PRODUCER SERVICES DEVELOPMENT

With the development of social economy, the deepening of labor division and the progress of science and technology, producer services have achieved unprecedented development in the global scope, and to a certain extent, which has exerted a decisive influence on the development trend of global "service-oriented economy". As an important part of the service industry, producer services are not only the main aspects of industrial transformation and upgrading and economic power transformation in China, but also the breakthrough point of promoting supply-side structural reform and leading the new normal of the economy. Basing on standard deviation ellipse, esda-gwr and spatial econometric analysis, this study explored the temporal-spatial characteristics and influential factors of the producer services development level of China's 286 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2015. The research conclusions are as following:Firstly, since 2003, the comprehensive index of producer services development level has been greatly improved, and the trend of gradual decline from coastal areas to inland areas has been gradually strengthened. From the perspective of spatial pattern, it presents the "center-periphery" structure from the coast to the inland. Secondly, China's producer services development level shows obvious spatial evolution characteristics:in the east-west direction, it firstly polarizes and then disperses; in the south-north direction, it firstly disperses and then polarizes. Thirdly, China's producer services development displays a strong and positive spatial correlation between cities, although the intensity is weakened, it is still very significant. The spatial correlation pattern is characterized by the "echelon" structure of the east coast as a high concentration area, inland as a low concentration area. Finally, this paper introduces spatial econometric model and GWR when analyzing the influential factors of producer services.