城市发展指数指引下的我国收缩区域初步评判

城市收缩在全球范围内蔓延,致使以增长为假设前提的区域经济增长模型受到极大挑战。本文以县域单元为研究对象,利用2000年与2010年各县域单元的社会经济数据构建城市发展指数,在其指引下对我国城市收缩状况做初步分析。研究表明:(1)在城市化的快速进程中,我国县域单元出现收缩现象,特别是县、自治县、自治旗、旗出现较多数量的收缩。(2)发生收缩的县域单元共261个,大多数为人口较少的中小城镇;西部地区分布较多,且收缩面积较大。(3)收缩的县级行政区表现出一些共性特征:人口数量和密度下降、老龄化加深、医疗卫生条件较差、经济发展缓慢,财政赤字严重。这一结果有助于初步了解我国收缩区域整体格局,并呼吁研究者和政策制定者尽快针对这一问题展开研究,促进区域可持续发展。

EXPLORING SHRINKING AREAS IN CHINA AVAILING OF CITY DEVELOPMENT INDEX

After centuries of continuous development of world urban civilization, rapid urbanization and economic growth have become the "standard development path" commonly pursued by global cities, but the path is no longer realistic, unsustainable and universality in some areas due to the influential including the slowdown of global economic growth and the impact of local economic crisis. Considering the multiple dimension of shrinking cities, this paper construct city development index from two dimensions of society and economy, and use the entropy method to measure the development score. And then taking counties and urban districts as a basic unit in analysis and analyzing the data during 2000 to 2010, this paper explores the shrinking area in China by comparing the scores of two years, and its distribution and socio-economic characteristics are analyzed. The results indicate that:1) Counties shrink against the backdrop of fast urbanization in China, globalization, resource exhaustion, housing market decline and other factors. 2) There are 261 shrinking units in 2349 counties and urban districts in China, and most of which are small and medium-sized towns with small population. 3) The shrinking counties in China have some common characteristics:the population and density declining, the aging deepening, the medical and health conditions poor, the economic development slow, the fiscal deficit serious, and the shrinking degree of shrinking counties in China relatively small.