中国出境旅游安全事故时空分布格局及形成机制

以原国家旅游局“旅行社责任保险统保示范项目”中的11115条出境旅游出险案例为研究对象,运用数理统计和空间计量方法,对中国出境旅游安全事故时空分布格局及形成机制进行分析。研究表明：①出境旅游安全事故总体区域分布呈现出异质性和高度凝聚的分布态势。②各类型旅游安全事故具有集中性、差异性的频次分布特征和空间集聚特征。③各大洲旅游安全事故呈现出逐年扩张的发展态势,事故高发核心区聚集性不断增强,不同区域的旅游安全事故呈现出差异化的年际变化特征,各州事故季节波动也存在异质性,但均出现下降趋势。④旅游安全事故时空分布格局形成受客源地主体因素和目的地客体因素的共同影响,不同探测因子的影响力度呈现差异化特征。

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS AND FORMATION MECHANISM OF CHINESE OUTBOUND TOURISTS' SAFETY ACCIDENTS

Based on 11115 outbound travel insurance cases in the former National Tourism Administration's "Model Project of Unified Liability Insurance for Travel Agencies", this paper uses Lorentz curve, Gini coefficient, Nearest Neighbor Index, Nuclear Density Estimation, Geographic Detector and other mathematical statistics and spatial measurement methods to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution pattern and formation mechanism of outbound travel safety accidents in China. The results show that: 1)The overall regional distribution of outbound tourism safety accidents in China shows a heterogeneous and highly agglomeration distribution trend. At the inter-continental level, it is mainly concentrated in Asia, and at the meso-geographic level, it is highly concentrated in Southeast Asia and East Asia. At the national and tourist destination level, it is mainly concentrated in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Thailand, Japan, Korea, Indonesia and the United States. 2)The time series of outbound tourism safety accidents in China is uneven. From the perspective of inter-annual change, the level of inter-annual change of tourism safety accidents in developed areas is relatively small, while the inter-annual change of accidents in emerging tourism markets and cold spots is relatively large. 3)The formation of outbound tourism safety accidents is mainly affected by four major factors. Among the main factors of tourist origin, tourism flow is the dominant factor affecting the temporal and spatial distribution of accidents. Among the factors of destination object, destination risk is the core factor affecting the spatio-temporal distribution of accidents.