旅游目的地危机事件的影响评估新考量

目的地旅游业受到危机事件冲击后，准确地对旅游业受危机事件影响的时长及旅游损失进行评估，有助于把握危机影响规律，为危机管理手段的选取和旅游业恢复政策的制定提供科学依据。本文以2003年SARS事件为例，运用旅游本底趋势线法（TBTL），对我国入境旅游人次受其影响的时间长度和旅游损失进行了评估。研究结论是，SARS对我国入境旅游影响时间长达19个月，入境旅游人次损失为1368．91万人次。研究结论和实际一致。

A New Deliberation on Impact Evaluation of Crisis Event at Tourism Destinations

To accurately evaluate the length of time of the impact of a crisis event on a destination and the loss of tourism after it helps to grasp the law of crisis impact for providing scientific basis for selecting suitable means of crisis management and formulating appropriate tourism recovery policies. On the basis of background trend line, this thesis took the SARS event in 2003 to evaluate the length of time of its impact on the number of inbound tourists and the loss of tourism. The results show that its impact on China＇ s inbound tourism lasted for nineteen months and the loss amounted to 13,689,100 persontimes. This conclusion is proven to be consistent with the fact.