Is there a relationship between wartime violence and postwar agricultural development outcomes? The case of concessions and community grants in Mozambique

This paper studies if intensity and recentness of wartime violence is related to the trajectory of post-conflict agricultural development. We consider the case of Mozambique, where the government has made agricultural concessions to corporations, as well as land grants to communities. These uses may stand in competition with one another, and we test if violence affects the awarding of concessions or land grants. We analyze district-level, GIS-generated data on concessions, grants, and civil war events. We find wartime violence intensity is associated with more concessions and fewer grants. We conversely find recentness of violence is associated with fewer concessions and more grants. Embedding our empirical analysis in a community resilience framework, we suggest the intensity of wartime violence may erode local institutions – be they traditional governance structures, or agricultural cooperatives seeking community lands – or limit their access to government bodies and local NGOs tasked with vetting, delimiting, and monitoring proposed concessions. Paradoxically, recentness violence may mobilize those same institutions.