The early dissolution of the house of representatives

An early election is likely: (a) when the elections for the two houses are out of kilter, (b) when the Parliament has met the technical conditions of section 57, and (c) when the government is in its first term of office. In other circumstances a parliament is likely to run its full term.

In terms of likelihood of winning an early election a prime minister would be well advised to call a synchronising early election if his government is in its first term (Deakin in 1903, Hughes in 1917 and Fraser in 1977) but should be advised against calling a double dissolution election if he is not in his first term. (There is no case of a prime minister winning a double dissolution election who was not in his first term.)

Generally speaking, synchronising early elections have been kind to governments while double dissolution elections have been unkind.