中国—中亚合作冲突关系及时空热点分析

中亚地处欧亚大陆中心,是“一带一路”倡议建设的重要区域。本文基于GDELT新闻媒体数据库,构建了事件影响度和双边关系度,定量分析了中国与中亚国家之间的合作、冲突关系演变,采用时空热点分析识别了中国在中亚城市尺度的合作、冲突热点模式。结果表明：①中国与中亚国家的合作日趋紧密。“一带一路”倡议提出之后,中国与中亚国家的合作趋势显著上升,与哈萨克斯坦的合作关系最为紧密。②中国在中亚地区的合作区域集中在中亚国家首都、战略要地、重要能源基地等,在乌兹别克斯坦安集延地区和塔吉克斯坦哈特隆州形成集中连片的合作区域。冲突区域集中在中亚国家首都和战略要地,与合作区域在空间上高度重合,但影响力显著低于合作事件。③中国在中亚城市的影响力以合作关系占主导,冲突关系大于合作关系的城市主要分布在吉尔吉斯斯坦。64%的中亚城市为低合作—低冲突状态,中亚国家首都、阿拉木图、安集延属于显著的高合作—高冲突城市。④时间尺度上,中国与中亚地区的合作热点以持续型为主,冲突热点以振荡型为主,哈萨克斯坦纳伦市、阿特劳州为新增冲突热点,应引起重视。

THE COOPERATION AND CONFLICT BETWEEN CHINAAND CENTRAL ASIAAND SPATIO-TEMPORAL HOT SPOT ANALYSIS

Central Asia is located in the center of the Eurasian continent and is an important area for the construction of the "Belt and Road". Based on the GDELT news media database, this article constructs the indexes of impact of events and the degree of bilateral relations, and quantitatively analyzes the evolution of cooperation and conflict between China and Central Asian countries. Moreover, using emerging hot spot analysis, this article identified China's cooperation and conflict hot spot models at the urban scale in Central Asia. The result shows:1) The cooperative relationship between China and Central Asian countries is getting closer. After the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, the cooperative trend between China and Central Asian countries has increased significantly, and the China-Kazakhstan cooperation relationship is the closest. 2) China's cooperation areas in Central Asia are concentrated in the capitals, strategic positions, and important energy bases of Central Asian countries. Concentrated and contiguous cooperation areas have been formed in the Andijan region of Uzbekistan and the Khatlon region of Tajikistan. 3) China's influence in Central Asian cities is dominated by cooperative relations. 4) On the time scale, the cooperative hot spots between China and Central Asia are mainly continuous, and the conflict hot spots are mainly oscillating.