中国城市发展质量的时空分异及其驱动因素

本文基于新发展理念构建城市发展质量测算体系,采用纵横向拉开档次法测度中国 2005—2018年 284 个城市的发展质量,借助 Dagum 基尼系数与核密度估计工具考察中国城市发展质量的区域差异和动态演进规律,并进一步运用地理探测器探究城市发展质量时空分异的驱动因素。研究发现：①城市发展质量呈现稳步上升趋势,但“后期乏力”和“东强西弱”的问题突出;②区域间差异是城市发展质量差异的主要原因,贡献率为 57.04%;③城市发展质量的绝对差距逐年缩小,各区域分布延展特征突出;④自然条件与经济发展水平是城市发展质量时空分异的主要驱动因素,而人力资本水平和政府调控力度的驱动力正逐渐增强。

THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT QUALITY IN CHINA AND ITS DRIVING FACTORS

As the main position and growth pole of economic and social development, cities are the key to high-quality development. Based on the new development philosophy, this paper builds an urban development quality measurement system, and uses the vertical and horizontal scale method to measure and analyze the development quality of 284 cities at the prefecture level and above in China from 2005 to 2018. Further, with the help of Dagum Gini coefficient method and kernel density estimation method, we investigate the regional differences and dynamic evolution laws of urban development quality in China, and use geographic detectors to explore the driving factors of spatial and temporal differentiation of urban development quality. The research found that: 1) The quality of urban development shows a steady upward trend, thanks to the improvement in the quality of the five sub-dimensions, but the problems of "weakness in the later period" and "strength in the east and weakness in the west" are prominent; 2) The unbalanced phenomenon of urban development quality in China is obvious, but it is gradually changing from a spatially unbalanced state to a spatially balanced state. 3) The absolute difference in the quality of urban development is narrowing year by year, the regional distribution and extension characteristics are prominent, and there is heterogeneity in the differences between cities within the region; 4) Natural conditions and the level of economic development are the main driving factors for the spatial and temporal differentiation of urban development quality, and the driving forces for the level of human capital and government regulation are gradually increasing.