人口流动对边境地区人口安全的影响及机制分析

本文关注我国边境人口变动和人口流动状况，着重分析了人口流动对边境人口安全的影响机制，并探讨了边境人口流动的影响因素。研究发现，①边境县域人口总体规模稳中略降，人口增速和增量持续减少；②人口净流出已逐步成为边境人口变动主要因素；③边境人口变动与流动影响程度有明显区域差异。外流风险型地区已出现明显的人口负增长和外流，人口安全缺乏数量和质量保障；相对稳定型地区人口保持低速增长，但其人口净流出水平正不断提高，有向外流风险型转变的趋势；相对封闭增长型地区人口增长较快，但流动性较弱。各类边境地区人口流出流入呈现不同特征，并受到经济、教育、城镇化、民族、政策等不同因素影响。

HOW MIGRATION AFFECTS POPULATION SECURITY IN CHINA'S BORDER REGIONS:SPATIAL DIFFERENCES,MECHANISM AND DRIVING FORCE

With the accumulation of negative population growth momentum and emergence of diversified migration, it has become a new challenge to the stability of population in the border areas. In this context, this article analyses the evolution of population and migration in China's border area, with a special attention on the influence of migration on the population security in border counties. Using the data of 2000, 2010, and 2020 National Population Census of China and the 2005, 2015 China 1% National Population Survey, this paper employs visual analysis to capture population growth and migration patterns in China's 136 border counties from 2000 to 2020. Results show that the population of border counties is still stable but declining. Migration has gradually become the major factor of border population change, and the impact of out-migration is continuously increasing especially since 2010. Migration in different regions is affected by different factors: The growth rate of per capital GDP has the most significant effect on weakening the out-migration rate and increasing the in-migration rate in the out-migration risk areas; the policy preference index has a significant positive impact on the in-migration rate in areas with stable population growth; the years of education have a positive significant impact on out-migration rate in both relative stable and closed growth area, but it is not significant in the out-migration risk areas.