Components of partisan bias originating from single-member districts in multi-party systems: An application to Mexico |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, Mexico;2. University of Pittsburgh, USA;3. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA;4. University of Florida, USA;1. Centro de Estudos Sociais, Universidade de Coimbra, Colégio de S. Jerónimo, Largo D. Dinis, Apartado 3087, 3000-995 Coimbra, Portugal;2. Internet Interdisciplinary Institute (IN3), Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, 08860 Castelldefels (Barcelona), Spain;3. Departament de Geografia, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona), Spain;1. Geography, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne and Wear, NE17RU, United Kingdom;2. Institute of Geography, Slovak Academy of Sciences, ?tefánikova 49, 814 73, Bratislava, Slovakia |
| |
| Abstract: | We extend the estimation of the components of partisan bias—i.e., undue advantage conferred to some party in the conversion of votes into legislative seats—to single-member district systems in the presence of multiple parties. Extant methods to estimate the contributions to partisan bias from malapportionment, boundary delimitations, and turnout are limited to two-party competition. In order to assess the spatial dimension of multi-party elections, we propose an empirical procedure combining three existing approaches: a separation method (Grofman et al. 1997), a multi-party estimation method (King 1990), and Monte Carlo simulations of national elections (Linzer, 2012). We apply the proposed method to the study of recent national lower chamber elections in Mexico. Analysis uncovers systematic turnout-based bias in favor of the former hegemonic ruling party that has been offset by district geography substantively helping one or both other major parties. |
| |
| Keywords: | Redistricting Partisan bias Malapportionment Gerrymandering Voter turnout Mexican congressional elections |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
