The analysis of innovation processes

Methods are described for modelling both the speeds and the driving forces of innovation processes, namely Critical Path Schedules and Cash Flow Curves respectively. The differences between innovations in modern industrial conditions and simpler societies are discussed, and the models applied to early innovations, but the data are too fragmentary to make quantitative models, although they can be used qualitatively to show general trends. In early societies the speeds were very slow but benefit/cost ratios very high, whereas the reverse tends to be true on average for modern innovations. Long delay times are often found in early innovation processes and these are determined by a wide variety of cultural factors. Seldom has the progress of the technology itself been on the “Critical Path” of innovation processes. The “Critical Path” and “Cash Flow” methods can also be used to study other, non-innovative, complex processes.