Spatial autocorrelation tests and the Classic Maya collapse: Methods and inferences

Spatial autocorrelation, resulting in pattern or structure in geographically distributed data, is discussed in theoretical and practical terms. Tests for spatial autocorrelation are presented, along with an explication of the relationship between autocorrelation models, the product-moment correlation coefficient and the spatial autocorrelation test statistic. Two archaeological examples illustrate the application of the auto-correlation test statistic. The first uses a hypothetical data set, which shows the type of map patterns that appear with various levels of spatial autocorrelation, and the second examines the terminal distribution of long-count-dated monuments at lowland Classic Maya sites. The results of the second example fail to support arguments for simple patterning in the cessation of the erection of these monuments and, by inference, in the Maya collapse itself. Finally, it is argued that while the identification of spatial autocorrelation is often the goal of spatial analyses, the presence of autocorrelation violates the assumptions of certain statistics used in such analyses.