西安市人口的分布变动研究

基于三次人口普查数据,对西安市80年代以来的人口分布变动进行了系统研究。结果表明:西安市在20世纪80年代便已形成"中心区人口减少、内圈和中圈人口快速增长、外圈人口低速增长"的区域差异格局,90年代这种区域差异格局更明显。通过人口分布模型的回归拟合,尝试性预测了西安市未来人口分布的趋势。结果显示:2010年西安市人口分布的峰值将出现在距市中心约2.5km的城墙与二环线之间。最后探讨了西安市人口分布变动的促进机制。

STUDY ON REDISTRIBUTION OF URBAN POPULATION IN XI'AN

The study on redistribution of urban population has always been paying more attention by the academe of domestic and overseas. Since 1980's, with the development of society and economy, the redistribution of urban population in Xi'an has made great changes. So this article makes the research on Xi'an's redistribution of urban population in order to offer some suggestions for urban planning branch to lead urban development reasonable. Based on the data gained from the China's third, fourth and fifth national census (1982,1990 and 2000), from different aspects of population, such as size, density, increasing character and transfer change in different zones, this paper makes a comprehensive study on the spatial redistribution of the population in Xi'an. Farther, reducing the analysis cell to street, village and town, this paper analyzes the difference of population redistribution more clearly. The authors find that Xi'an had formed the differential pattern of "City-core's population decrease, Inner-city and Sub-urban increase in high speed and Ex-urban increase in low speed" in the 1980s; in the 1990s, this pattern in Xi'an became more obvious. The authors select Newling model to forecast the trend of spatial distribution of population density of Xi'an. Through the regressions of spatial distribution Newling models of population density, the authors find that the population density in the City-core decreased constantly from 1982 to 2000 year, but did not form the lower vale in the end of 2000 year, the flood tide of population density in the City-core has the outward process trend, and the max of population density will distribute between rampart and the 2rd ring road in 2010. Lastly, this paper analyses the mechanisms of the redistribution of urban population in Xi'an. The end of this study shows that we should establish the land repaying system, reform the housing system and remake the old city, and carry out subrogation of the urban general planning and constructing and consummating of transport facilities and communication system.