ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: BOUNDED RATIONALITY APPLIED TO UNBOUNDED ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS

The interaction among myriad species and chemicals in the food chain often yields potential outcomes which are difficult to foresee. In policy terms, these interactions comprise an information load beyond human cognition, resulting in unexpected side effects. The clearest examples are seen in the invasions of species and epidemics, air pollution, toxic substances, and endangered species. The policy process attempts to deal with the information problem by using (1) an incremental approach, (2) a bounding approach, or (3) an uncertainty approach. Unfortunately, the bounding approach excludes all data on interactions outside the apparent cause/effect hypothesis. Possible approaches to augment and improve environmental policy, beyond the bounding approach, are to inquire into uncertainties and side-effects, choose complex ecologies over simple ones, and sample for uncertain risks by probability assessments.