“少子化”与“老龄化”:马来西亚华人人口发展特点与趋势预测

论文基于历年马来西亚官方的统计数据,对当前"少子化"背景下马来西亚华人人口发展现状进行系统描述;在人口转变理论框架下对马来西亚华人人口比重下降这一现象进行归因分析;并利用人口队列预测方法预测分析马来西亚中长期人口发展状况。研究发现:由于较早开始人口转变进程,马来西亚华人具有低生育率、高老龄化程度等特征;人口转变进程中的族群"堕距",是当前华人人口比重下降的根本原因。伴随马来西亚各族群人口转变进程的推进,未来华人人口比例下降速度将逐步趋缓,但老龄化程度将快速提高。

Low-fertility and Aging:Demographic Features and Forthcoming Trends in Malaysian Chinese Population

Based on a historical analysis of the official statistics of Malaysian Chinese population and applying the theory of demographic transition,this paper identifies that low fertility and aging are currently two major demographic features of Malaysian Chinese.An ethnic gap in the demographic transition process in Malaysia is the main reason for the declining proportion of Chinese population.The research also suggests that the declining proportion of Malaysian Chinese population will slow down,according to a projection of Malaysian population.However,the problem of an aging Chinese population will become more apparent.These findings provide a basis for recommending a population policy on Malaysia’s ethnic development in response to the challenges of low fertility and aging problems among the Malaysian Chinese.