| 基于计量经济学模型的内地赴澳门游客量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾忠禄,郑勇.基于计量经济学模型的内地赴澳门游客量预测[J].旅游科学,2009,23(3):55-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾忠禄 郑勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 澳门理工学院旅游博彩研究所
2. 澳门科技大学行政与管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 澳门科学技术发展基金项目《澳门旅游收入预测(软件)》 |
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| 摘 要： | 本研究选择中国大陆地区人均可支配收入、消费者物价指数、国内生产总值，以及澳门与大陆之间商品进出口总额、港币与人民币汇率等变量，建立计量经济学模型估计内地赴澳门游客的数量。模型数据来源于澳门、大陆和香港官方公布的历年季度数据。在建立公式化的预测模型之后，本文还对模型的拟合优度和预测精度给予评估，对模型的基本假设进行了检验。本研究成果可作为有关政府部门和企业的决策参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 计量经济学模型 游客量 预测 澳门 |
Forecast on Inbound Visitors Flow from Mainland Chinese to Macau: Based on Econometric Model |
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| Zhonglu Zheng,Yong Zheng.Forecast on Inbound Visitors Flow from Mainland Chinese to Macau: Based on Econometric Model[J].Tourism Science,2009,23(3):55-61. |
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| Authors: | Zhonglu Zheng Yong Zheng |
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| Institution: | 1.Macau Polytechnic Institute;2.Management and Administration Institute;Macau University of Science and Technology;Taipa;Macau |
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| Abstract: | This research built up an econometric model to estimate the possible number of visitors from mainland China to Macau by using the quarterly published official figures including average per person income,consumer price index of Mainland China,the total import and export of both Mainland and Macau Special District,currency exchange rate between Hong Kong dollar and RMB,and gross domestic product of mainland China as the variables.With the prediction model,the paper estimated the goodness of fit and the predic... |
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| Keywords: | econometric model tourist flow forecast Macau |
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