中国城乡居民收入差距的省区间比较分析

中国城乡居民收入差距问题早已存在,但目前对城乡居民收入差距的研究大都是从全国的角度出发,从省区的角度进行的定量对比研究很少。而现实中省区间的城乡居民收入差距却存在着明显的差别,这种差别对于我们进行具体的成因分析以及因地制宜地制定城乡居民收入政策具有重要的意义。为此,本文利用1978- 2000年各省区城乡居民收入统计资料,采用回归分析和相关性分析的方法,从空间分布和时间序列变化两个方面对省区间的城乡居民收入差距进行了初步研究,揭示了城乡居民收入差距由东向西逐渐扩大的空间布局以及时间序列变化上的不同步性,同时,还对形成这种空间不平衡和时间变化不同步的原因进行了初步探讨,为进一步的成因分析及城乡政策的制定奠定基础。

THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF INCOME DISPARITY BETWEEN RURAL AND URBAN RESIDENTS AMONG CHINESE PROVINCES

It has been a long time since the income disparity between rural and urban residents existed. Now, Most of the research focused on the disparity of whole country primarily, a few had paid attention to the disparity between rural and urban residents among provinces.In fact, this disparity is very important to the research of reason and policy-making in the income disparity between rural and urban residents.In this paper, we used the income statistical data of rural and urban residents from 1978 to 2000 in each province and made comparative analysis of the income disparity between rural and urban residents among provinces by using linear regression and correlation analysis from the view of spatial distribution and time series.By comparing the average income disparity between rural and urban residents in the East、Middle and the West region and their ratios in ten provinces with smallest, middle and largest disparity respectively, we can display the spatial distribution of income disparity between rural and urban residents among provinces and their variability.The result showed that the income disparity between rural and urban residents among provinces was getting larger and larger from the East、the Middle to the West.By making linear regression between the time series of income disparity between rural and urban residents in each province and that of the whole country, we can get the correlations.We also make quantitative analysis in the causality of this disparity:the average of 23 years' GDP ratios of each province, which is calculated as GDP per capital of province divided by that of country, denotes the economic level of province;the average of each province's 23 years' income ratios between rural and urban residents denotes income disparity between rural and urban residents in each province.By making linear regression between these two factors, we can get that the relationship of these two factors is negative nonlinear.As to the reasons that made the synchronous and asynchronous income disparity change between provinces and whole country, we made elementary analysis also.We considered that the special historic background and economic environment are most imaginable reasons. Because the asynchronous characteristic do exist, we should make research of the reason according to their special circumstance, thus making foundation for the analysis of the mechanism of the income disparity between rural and urban residents and policy-decision.