抢劫与抢夺犯罪行为时空分布特征研究——以上海市浦东新区为例

本文以上海市浦东新区为例研究抢劫、抢夺犯罪的时空分布规律及其与城市空间环境的关系。发现两抢犯罪时空分布呈现显著且稳定的规律性。犯罪时间分布与人们的起居、出行时间密切相关;两抢犯罪高发区往往犯罪目标相对集中、人口流动性较大并且作案后便于逃逸;犯罪低发区多为非生活功能的区域。外来人口、商业场所、通勤人口以及交通复杂程度等城市环境因素对两抢案件数量呈显著正向贡献。两抢案件的发生要素可归纳为三个方面:犯罪目标时空上的集聚、较强的人口流动性以及作案后逃逸的方便。

STUDY ON SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF ROBBERY AND SNATCH: A CASE STUDY OF PUDONG NEW AREA,SHANGHAI

In China, with the rapid development of urbanization and the prosperous construction of urban environment, urban crime is becoming a critical factor affecting urban safety, such as robbery and snatch which influence people's daily life seriously.This paper explored spatial-temporal patterns of robbery and snatch(R&S) and their relationship with urban environments using data from Shanghai Municipal Public Security Bureau Pudong Branch. Spatial, statistical and qualitative analysis methods have been applied in this study. The findings indicate that spatial-temporal patterns of R&S are quite obvious and stable with time. Temporal patterns of R&S are related to people's living and commuting activities. R&S are concentrated in middlewest of Pudong New Area which is more developed than other places. The mean centre of the coordinates of crimes moves slightly to the east year by year with the development of east Pudong New Area and the increasing of human behaviors there. Spatial distribution of R&S is positively auto-correlated. R&S happening on road and square are much more than those on other types of landuse because criminals are easier to escape on road and square. The regression analysis discovers that the spatial distributions of R&S are relevant to the environmental factors of urban environment, such as commercial facilities, floating population, bus stops and road intersections. In general, environment has important influence on R&S, which are in accordance with routine activity theory and environmental criminology theory.