环渤海沿海地市低碳转型绩效评价与影响因素分析

基于低碳转型的内涵，本文以环渤海17个沿海地市2005-2012 年的面板数据为基础，构建环渤海沿海地市低碳转型的评价指标体系，运用集对分析法对其进行评价研究，并采用核密度估计模型及GIS 空间分析技术对其结果进行时空差异分析，揭示其内在变化规律。研究结果表明：①自2005 年到2012年，环渤海沿海地市低碳发展颓势明显，各地市低碳转型没有取得明显进展，各地市之间转型绩效的整体差距较大。②环渤海沿海地市经济增长在空间格局中并没有显著的变化，而在产业结构、能源利用、生态环境、发展支撑方面均呈现出反向变化的态势，说明低碳转型成效并不显著，仍然保持传统的发展态势。③环渤海沿海地市低碳转型绩效的时空差异是多种因素综合作用的结果，包括资金、人力与基础设施等经济社会支撑因素，国家政策、科学技术、低碳意识及企业家素质等新型推动因素，资源（能源）禀赋、区位条件等自然基础因素。

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF LOW-CARBON TRANSFORMATION AND INFLUENCE FACTORS ANALYSIS IN BOHAI RIM COASTAL CITIES

Based on the contents interpretation of low carbon transition, this article establishes an evaluation index system for low carbon transition of cities around the Bohai bay using panel data of 17 coastal cities around the Bohai bay from 2005 to 2012 The evaluation index system employs combination weighting approach based on integrated analysis to evaluate and study the aforementioned aspects and uses kernel density estimation model and geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis to conduct spatiotemporal changing analysis of the results to reveal the internal changing rules. By doing so, the inherit variation rules are revealed, accompanying with the following conclusions: Firstly, from the macroscopic perspective, the performance of low carbon transition of coastal cities along Bohai bay from 2005 to 2012 was not getting obvious progress. Secondly, from the perspective divided by indexes, there was no great change of economic development of cities around the Bohai bay in spatial framework. Last but not the least, the spatial and temporal disparities of performances in low carbon transitions of cities around the Bohai bay were due to multiple reasons, including economic and social supporting factors such as capital, human resources and infrastructures etc.