我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析——基于人口与经济变化的视角

当前，世界上一些城市的收缩现象逐渐得到关注，但是我国城市是否呈现收缩现象，以及城市收缩的空间特征和主导因素等仍缺乏系统的分析。基于此，基于地级市尺度的人口、劳动力、经济、空间扩张和财政状况等数据，建立综合评价体系测度城市收缩现象，并建立回归模型理解城市收缩的影响因素。研究发现，我国一些城市开始呈现收缩，而东北、中部等城市比较明显。在影响因素上，劳动力、经济增长和就业规模有助于促进城市增长，而空间扩张、失业和财政收支状况等会加剧城市收缩。应谨慎判别不同城市收缩的特征和影响因素，强化复兴导向的城市化策略。

MEASURING SHRINKING CITIES AND INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN URBAN CHINA: PERSPECTIVE OF POPULATION AND ECONOMY

For the past two centuries, urbanization worldwide has progressed at a rapid pace, but urban growth and spatial development are usually distributed unevenly due to the influential factors including population, economic activities, physical environment and institutional-dependence. Recently, several countries or cities have experienced significant declines both in population and economic performance in the past decades. Even in growing city-regions, considerable decline would regularly occur. Under this context, the term-shrinking cities-mainly refers to cities or urban regions that experienced a dramatic loss in population, has been gradually discovered. For continuous urbanizing China, have some Chinese cities already experienced significant decline after more than twenty years' rapid economic growth? And if so, what are the potential influential factors, and to what extend these factors dominate cities' shrinking? These important questions related to urban sustainable development however still remain to be carefully examined, particularly the National New-type Urbanization should be considered. In order to measure the potential shrinkage phenomenon in urban China, in this paper, we first collect data on population, labor, economic, city expansion and fiscal conditions of 286 prefecture-level city from 2009 to 2013, and then use some regression models to explain the influential factors after measuring the potential shrinking cities based on comprehensive evaluation index. Finally, it gives certain potential implications to cope with shrinking cities both from the perspective of spatial planning and developmental policies.