不同类型道路密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率的影响——基于ZG市的实证研究

道路密度对犯罪分布存在影响已得到大多数学者的证实，但忽略了不同类型道路属性的差异对犯罪的影响。不同类型道路在社会-建成环境等各种属性方面存在较大的差异，因此明确不同类型道路密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率存在的影响有助于犯罪的防控。基于此，本文以派出所为单元构建多元线性回归模型进行研究。研究发现，不同类型道路密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率影响不同：城市次干道、城市支路和其他可通车道路密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率有正向影响；不可通车道路密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率有负向影响；城市主干道密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率影响不显著。不同类型道路社会-建成环境的差异是公共空间盗窃犯罪率不同的原因。研究结果可为犯罪精准防控提供指导。

THE DENSITY OF VARIOUS ROAD TYPES AND LARCENY RATE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ZG CITY

Spatial crime patterns have found to be related to street network, yet previous studies have not distinguished the heterogeneous influences of different types of road. Different social and physical environments are attached with different types of road, and they may impose different impacts on the occurrence of crime events. Of all the crime types, larceny is one of the most frequent crimes in the ZG city, and is closely associated with citizens' routine activities and their behavioral environments. Based on the routine activity theory, social disorder theory, crime pattern theory, and rational choice theory, this paper examines the impacts of different types of road on the spatial distribution of larceny with social-physical features taken as control variables. For the analysis, 91990 records of larceny are extracted from the call for services data in the ZG city police department, while the sixth census and points of interest from commercial navigation data sets are collected to represent the social-physical environment of the ZG city. Multiple linear regressions are used to quantitatively test the theoretical expectations. The regression results have confirmed the theoretical expectation that the densities of different types of road have diverse influences on the spatial larceny pattern. The densities of the secondary road, branch road, other vehicle-passable road, and pedestrian road are significantly associated with the larceny rate.